So what's the most reliable way to sense presence

You could search for this question to see how others have answered it over the years.

Short version is ..

Any presence strategy based on your mobile device can't do any better than your phone/carrier ability to report presence. That's the primary limiting factor, and no application can overcome that.

Some prefer to combine multiple strategies (phone app/wi-fi/etc.) into one for better results.

Life 360 used to be the app of choice for many, but no longer due to new restrictions.

OwnTracks seems to be the hot topic right now. See [RELEASE] OwnTracks for Hubitat Presence Detection - :gear: Custom Apps and Drivers - Hubitat.

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