ASSUMING lutron WANTS to make caseta smart bulb (hue) compatible

Do you think they could disable the relays via firmware or we’d need all new hardware?

Seems unlikely this will happen to Caséta line. We may see additional products similar to the Lutron Aurora:

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I’ll take it a step further and opine it almost certainly won’t.

It would be such a huge departure from how they’ve positioned the caseta line (and their other connected lighting product lines) up until now.

Also how would one update the firmware of a caseta device?

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Honestly I haven't seen a firmware update to caseta switches in a long time (I know it's done via the hub and the last time I saw a hub update was 2 years ago I think)