Is there a good Zwave sensor I can use for my mailbox?

Zwave should certainly be less susceptible to disruption from walls/trees/WiFi routers/etc, since it's at ~900 MHz. But real world performance in your situation is more important than radio band.

That thread you linked looks worthwhile, especially:

If you can get the sensor to stay outside and use a magnet on the door like that, it would be worthwhile for just that reason. Good suggestion!

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